January 2026 Newsletter

January 5, 2025

By: Ted Irwin, CFP®

Merry Christmas and

Happy New Year!

The intellectual lineage running from Jesus of Nazareth through the Apostle Paul, Augustine of Hippo, and Thomas Aquinas laid one of the most durable foundations for freedom, economic prosperity, and even the long-run conditions that produce rising stock prices.

Jesus introduced a revolutionary moral premise: the equal dignity of the individual soul. Worth was no longer assigned by tribe, status, or political power. This quietly dismantled ancient systems built on coercion and hierarchy and replaced them with a universal ethic that constrained rulers and elevated conscience. Markets ultimately depend on this assumption - that individuals are morally autonomous agents capable of responsibility, trust, and voluntary exchange.

Paul applied the framework. By universalizing Christianity beyond ethnicity and law, he shifted social cooperation from compulsion to consent. His emphasis on work, stewardship, and accountability, “if anyone will not work, neither shall he eat,” (2 Thessalonians 3:10) provided an early moral defense of productivity and contribution. Commercial societies require participation by choice, not decree.

Augustine supplied realism. He acknowledged human fallenness and argued that institutions exist not to perfect man, but to restrain power. This skepticism toward centralized authority planted the seeds of limited government - an essential prerequisite for sustained economic growth. Markets work not because people are angels, but because incentives are disciplined.

Aquinas completed the synthesis. Reconciling faith with reason, he legitimized private property, profit, and price formation while condemning fraud and coercion. His natural law tradition emphasized stable rules - critical for long-term investment. Capital markets do not require moral purity; they require predictability.

This lineage did not invent stock markets. It did something far more important: it built the civilizational architecture that allowed capital accumulation, innovation, and compounding returns to persist for centuries. Higher stock prices are not promised in Scripture - but they are a downstream consequence of a civilization that respected human dignity, limited power, and trusted free people to cooperate.

Sources & Influences: This essay draws on the Western Christian intellectual tradition from Augustine and Aquinas to modern historians of institutions and markets.

Reliable Portfolios: 2025

in Review and the Road Ahead

Performance, Positioning, and a Market Poised to Broaden

As the U.S. equity market moved through 2025, headline indexes once again delivered solid gains. Beneath the surface, however, a more nuanced story emerged - one that helps explain both the performance of the Reliable Portfolios and their positioning going forward.

Market leadership remained highly concentrated. A relatively small group of mega- cap companies accounted for a historically large share of index returns, leaving valuations at the top of the market stretched. Meanwhile, large, mid, and small-cap stocks outside that narrow leadership cohort traded much closer to long-term norms. Historically, when markets become narrowly led, the adjustment process more often comes through rotation rather than collapse, as leadership broadens and return drivers diversify.

Against this backdrop, the Reliable Stock Portfolio delivered a 16.98% return in 2025, extending a multi-year record of consistent compounding. Since inception in 2015, the portfolio has generated a 236.57% total return, compounding at 12.90% annually. Results were driven not by speculation, but by ownership of high-quality businesses across technology, consumer staples, healthcare, industrials, energy, and financials - balancing innovation with durability.

The Reliable ETF & Fund Model Portfolios performed exactly as designed. All eight models produced positive returns in 2025, ranging from 14.49% in Conservative strategies to 20.53% in Aggressive Growth, with performance scaling predictably as equity exposure increased. Over longer horizons, results remain compelling, with ten-year annual returns ranging from 6.48% to 12.35%, depending on risk profile. Importantly, these outcomes were achieved through structure and discipline rather than tactical market timing.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Looking into 2026, both the Reliable Stock Portfolio and the Reliable Model Portfolios are positioned for an environment where broadening participation matters more than headline index levels. Valuation dispersion favors equal-weight indexes, mid- and small-cap stocks, and cyclically sensitive businesses that require only economic normalization—rather than perfection—to perform well.

Policy dynamics may further support this shift. The likely extension of the 2017 tax cuts, combined with renewed emphasis on deregulation, should provide meaningful fuel for economic activity. These forces tend to disproportionately benefit smaller and mid-sized firms, where reduced compliance costs, improved margins, and increased capital investment can meaningfully impact returns.

At the same time, persistent tariff escalation - the “war trade” - may place a ceiling on overall economic growth. Tariffs function like a tax on trade: they can protect targeted industries and incentivize reshoring at the margin, but they also tend to raise input costs, complicate supply chains, and increase uncertainty for corporate planning. The result is an environment conducive to moderate index returns, higher volatility, and increased dispersion, rather than sustained multiple expansion.

In short, the market setup argues for neither exuberance nor alarm. Instead, it favors disciplined diversification, thoughtful allocation, and patience. The Reliable Portfolios are built for exactly this kind of market - one where long-term ownership, broad exposure, and consistency matter more than chasing the latest source of momentum.

Why a Budget Is the Foundation of Every Financial Plan

A budget is the cornerstone of every successful financial plan. Before retirement strategies, investment portfolios, or estate plans can work effectively, there must be a clear understanding of cash flow. A budget provides that clarity by outlining income, expenses, and priorities, and turning abstract goals into practical, achievable actions.

At its core, a budget creates awareness and control. It shows where money is going, not where we assume it goes. This insight allows individuals and families to make intentional decisions, eliminate waste, and direct resources toward what truly matters. Without a budget, even the best financial strategies rest on shaky ground, as overspending or inconsistent saving can quietly undermine long-term plans.

A budget is especially critical because it supports every other financial objective. Retirement planning, for example, depends on consistent savings over time. A budget ensures that contributions to retirement accounts happen first, rather than relying on leftover money that may never appear. Likewise, debt reduction, emergency savings, charitable giving, and major purchases all require a structured plan that only a budget can provide.

Importantly, budgeting is not about restrictions; it is about alignment. A well-designed budget balances present enjoyment with future security, allowing people to spend with confidence and without guilt. It adapts as income and life circumstances change, keeping financial goals on track through every season of life.

Ultimately, a budget is the foundation upon which all other plans are built. It connects daily decisions to long-term outcomes, transforms goals into habits, and turns financial intentions into lasting results.

Portfolio Inception Date: 11/02/2015 Performance as of 12/31/2025

Investment

Symbol

Conservative Allocation

Moderately Conservative Allocation

Moderate Allocation

Balanced Allocation

Growth & Income Allocation

Moderate Growth Allocation

Growth Allocation

Aggressive Growth Allocation

SPDR S&P 500 ETF

SPY

7.50%

10.50%

13.50%

16.50%

INVESCO RAFI US 1000 ETF

PRF

7.50%

10.50%

13.50%

16.50%

19.50%

22.50%

25.50%

28.50%

MOTLEY FOOL 100 INDEX ETF

TMFC

0.00%

1.50%

3.00%

4.50%

6.00%

ISHARES CORE S&P MID CAPETF

IJH

2.50%

3.50%

4.50%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

8.50%

9.50%

INVSC RAFI US 1500 SML MID ETF

PRFZ

2.50%

3.50%

4.50%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

8.50%

9.50%

Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US ETF

VEU

2.50%

3.50%

4.50%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

8.50%

9.50%

Invesco RAFI Developed Markets ex US ETF

PXF

2.50%

3.50%

4.50%

5.50%

6.50%

7.50%

8.50%

9.50%

ISHARES GOLD ETF

IAU

5.00%

AMPLIFY BLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGY ETF

BLOK

0.00%

1.50%

3.00%

4.50%

6.00%

ARBITRAGE R

ARBFX

12.50%

10.00%

7.50%

5.00%

2.50%

0.00%

GLENMEDE QUANT US LONG/SHORT EQUITY ADV

GTAPX

13.50%

12.00%

10.50%

9.00%

7.50%

5.00%

0.00%

MAI MANAGED VOLATILITY INVESTOR

DIVPX

9.00%

8.00%

7.00%

6.00%

5.00%

0.00%

ISHARES TIPS BOND ETF

TIP

8.75%

7.50%

6.25%

5.00%

3.75%

2.50%

1.25%

0.00%

Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF

BND

0.00%

ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2026 TERM CORPORATE ETF

IBDR

5.25%

4.50%

3.75%

3.00%

2.25%

1.50%

0.75%

0.00%

ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2027 TERM CORPORATE ETF

IBDS

5.25%

4.50%

3.75%

3.00%

2.25%

1.50%

0.75%

0.00%

ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2028 TERM CORPORATE ETF

IBDT

5.25%

4.50%

3.75%

3.00%

2.25%

1.50%

0.75%

0.00%

ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2029 TERM CORPORATE ETF

IBDU

5.25%

4.50%

3.75%

3.00%

2.25%

1.50%

0.75%

0.00%

SCHWAB PRIME ADVANTAGE MONEY INVESTOR

SWVXX

5.25%

4.50%

3.75%

3.00%

2.25%

1.50%

0.75%

0.00%

Returns

Metric

Conservative Allocation Returns

Moderately Conservative Allocation Returns

Moderate Allocation Returns

Balanced Allocation Returns

Growth & Income Allocation Returns

Moderate Growth Allocation Returns

Growth Allocation Returns

Aggressive Growth Allocation Returns

Total Return

85.10%

100.99%

117.96%

135.99%

154.25%

173.83%

193.29%

212.08%

Annualized Since Inception

6.30%

7.17%

8.03%

8.89%

9.70%

10.51%

11.26%

11.95%

Ten Year Annualized Return

6.48%

7.38%

8.28%

9.16%

10.00%

10.84%

11.63%

12.35%

Five Year Annualized Return

6.74%

7.71%

8.67%

9.62%

10.49%

11.31%

11.95%

12.75%

Three Year Annualized Return

10.91%

12.15%

13.40%

14.65%

15.75%

16.84%

17.82%

18.84%

One Year Return

14.49%

15.62%

16.78%

17.90%

18.60%

19.25%

19.82%

20.53%

Three Month Return

3.02%

3.20%

3.40%

3.58%

3.38%

3.14%

2.87%

2.73%

One Month Return

0.76%

0.79%

0.82%

0.85%

0.72%

0.57%

0.41%

0.32%

YTD Return

14.49%

15.62%

16.78%

17.90%

18.60%

19.25%

19.82%

20.53%

2024 Return

8.78%

9.97%

11.16%

12.35%

13.54%

14.69%

15.56%

16.69%

2023 Return

9.55%

10.95%

12.35%

13.76%

15.16%

16.62%

18.12%

19.33%

2022 Return

-7.85%

-8.51%

-9.18%

-9.84%

-10.51%

-11.24%

-12.08%

-12.58%

2021 Return

10.23%

12.33%

14.43%

16.53%

18.63%

20.69%

22.31%

24.20%

2020 Return

7.65%

8.28%

8.92%

9.55%

10.19%

10.92%

11.91%

12.44%

2019 Return

12.81%

14.72%

16.62%

18.53%

20.43%

22.46%

24.50%

25.91%

2018 Return

-3.77%

-4.54%

-5.32%

-6.09%

-6.87%

-7.58%

-8.03%

-8.77%

2017 Return

8.95%

10.45%

11.96%

13.46%

14.96%

16.47%

17.81%

19.18%

2016 Return

6.15%

7.33%

8.51%

9.69%

10.88%

12.08%

13.17%

14.22%

Reliable Portfolio and ValueFirst Planning LLC are separate and independent entities. The Reliable Portfolio Newsletter is an educational publication only. It provides general investment research, commentary, and analysis and does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance.

ValueFirst Planning LLC is a registered investment adviser offering individualized advisory services only through a written agreement after determining suitability.

Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as:Personalized investment adviceAn offer to buy or sell any securityA recommendation tailored to any specific individual

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Portfolio allocations, model results, and performance tables are illustrative and may not be appropriate for all investors.Model results and allocation tables assume annual rebalancing unless otherwise noted. Individual results may vary.

If you would like individualized advice or a review of your personal financial situation, you may schedule a meeting with a licensed advisor at ValueFirst Planning LLC.

Schedule a Meeting with Ted:https://scheduler.zoom.us/ted-irwin

Download as PDF

Reliable Portfolio

Stock Allocation and Returns

Portfolio Inception Date: 11/02/2015Performance as of 12/31/2025

Symbol

Description

Allocation

AAPL

APPLE INC

3.79%

GOOGL

ALPHABET INC CLASS CLASS A

3.74%

SCHW

CHARLES SCHWAB CORP

3.66%

WMT

WALMART INC

3.61%

AMZN

AMAZON.COM INC

3.51%

META

META PLATFORMS INC CLASS CLASS A

3.50%

GEV

GE VERNOVA INC

3.46%

THE COCA-COLA CO

3.43%

BRK/B

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CLASS CLASS B

3.33%

MCD

MCDONALDS CORP

3.28%

TSLA

TESLA INC

3.28%

MSFT

MICROSOFT CORP

3.21%

KROGER CO

3.12%

MAIN

MAIN STR CAP CORP

3.10%

NVDA

NVIDIA CORP

3.09%

CEG

CONSTELLATION ENERGY COR

3.04%

SBHGF

SBI HOLDINGS INC ORDF

2.95%

JNJ

JOHNSON & JOHNSON

2.90%

HOME DEPOT INC

2.75%

GE AEROSPACE

2.65%

SOUTHERN CO

2.39%

EXC

EXELON CORP

2.18%

MMM

3M CO

2.13%

PROCTER & GAMBLE CO

1.72%

INTC

INTEL CORP

1.66%

CVX

CHEVRON CORP NEW

1.63%

XOM

EXXON MOBIL CORP

1.61%

AT&T INC

1.60%

UNH

UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC

1.56%

ASML

ASML HLDG N V FSPONSORED ADR 1 ADR REPS 1 ORD SHS

1.42%

GEHC

GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGI

1.41%

FRFHF

FAIRFAX FINL HLDGS LTD F

1.26%

NSRGY

NESTLE S A FSPONSORED ADR 1 ADR REPS 1 ORD SHS

1.24%

PARKER-HANNIFIN CORP

1.17%

PFE

PFIZER INC

1.16%

CAT

CATERPILLAR INC

1.14%

FICO

FAIR ISAAC CORP

1.12%

RCI

ROGERS COMMUNICATIONS FCLASS CLASS B

0.90%

INTU

INTUIT

0.88%

IBM

IBM CORP

0.79%

CPRX

CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS

0.77%

CTVA

CORTEVA INC

0.76%

HOOD

ROBINHOOD MKTS INC CLASS CLASS A

0.75%

WDAY

WORKDAY INC CLASS CLASS A

0.71%

PLTR

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INCLASS CLASS A

0.71%

RIOT

RIOT PLATFORMS INC

0.49%

COIN

COINBASE GLOBAL INC CLASS CLASS A

0.45%

MARA

MARA HLDGS INC

0.34%

SOLV

SOLVENTUM CORP

0.31%

DUPONT DE NEMOURS INC

0.19%

QNITY ELECTRONICS INC

0.16%

Reliable Portfolio - Returns Summary

Metric

Relaible Portfolio Stock Returns

Total Return

236.57%

Annualized Since Inception

12.90%

Ten Year Annualized Return

12.74%

Five Year Annualized Return

13.13%

Three Year Annualized Return

16.10%

One Year Return

16.98%

Three Month Return

-0.77%

One Month Return

-0.54%

YTD Return

16.98%

2024 Return

18.10%

2023 Return

13.27%

2022 Return

-8.95%

2021 Return

30.03%

2020 Return

11.77%

2019 Return

21.93%

2018 Return

-3.12%

2017 Return

19.96%

2016 Return

13.07%

ValueFirst Planning LLC is a registered investment adviser offering individualized advisory services only through a written agreement after determining suitability.

Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as:

Personalized investment advice

An offer to buy or sell any security

A recommendation tailored to any specific individual

Stock Portfolio Methodology Disclosure (Final Version)

The Reliable Portfolio stock allocation is built on a long-term, buy-and-hold investment philosophy.While the portfolio is designed to remain largely stable over time, individual stock weights may be adjusted periodically in response to changes in company fundamentals, broader market conditions, or to manage overall portfolio risk.

Allocations are updated each month to reflect the growth or relative performance of the existing model portfolio since the most recent rebalance.These monthly updates are not trading signals but simply show how the model has evolved over time as positions appreciate or decline at different rates.

Reallocations do not follow a predetermined schedule.Adjustments occur only when warranted by material changes in valuation, business quality, sector dynamics, or risk considerations. As such, stock allocation changes may be infrequent and should not be interpreted as recommendations to buy, sell, or rebalance at a specific time.

Portfolio allocations and performance tables are illustrative, intended for educational purposes, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Actual investor results will vary depending on personal investment decisions, rebalancing frequency, cash flows, expenses, and tax considerations.

If you would like individualized advice or a review of your personal financial situation, you may schedule a meeting with a licensed advisor at ValueFirst Planning LLC.

Schedule a Meeting with Ted:https://scheduler.zoom.us/ted-irwin

Download as PDF

Important Disclosures

Reliable Portfolio and ValueFirst Planning LLC are separate and independent entities.

The Reliable Portfolio Newsletter is an educational publication only. It provides general investment research, commentary, and analysis and does not take into account your personal financial situation, objectives, or risk tolerance.

Nothing in this publication should be interpreted as:

Personalized investment advice
An offer to buy or sell any security
A recommendation tailored to any specific individual

All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Portfolio allocations, model results, and performance tables are illustrative and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

If you would like individualized advice or a review of your personal financial situation, you may schedule a meeting with a licensed advisor at ValueFirst Planning LLC.

This publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. ValueFirst Planning LLC is a registered investment adviser offering individualized advisory services only through a written agreement after determining suitability.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schedule a Meeting with Ted:

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January 2026 Newsletter

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